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Global Snapshot

MILK EQUIVALENT | SMP | WMP | BUTTER | CHEESE

Milk Equivalent ('000 Ton)	Δ Milk P.	Δ Imp*	Δ Exp*	Δ Cons*	Balance Δ(P+I-E-C)
Main Players, changes Jan-Nov 2018 on Jan-Nov 2017
EU-28	+1,0% +1.448	+0,8% +4	-0,5% -88	+0,9% +1.230	+309
New Zealand	+2,0% +372	+9,9% +12	-3,2% -494	+2,5% +37	+841
USA	+1,0% +902	-9,1% -153	+16,9% +1.494	+0,9% +700	-1.444
Australia	-1,4% -121	-5,8% -69	+0,6% +21	+2,4% +165	-377
Belarus	+0,4% +26	-5,2% -4	+4,3% +144	-3,3% -86	-36
Uruguay	+4,7% +84	-5,6% -2	+21,5% +247	0% 0	-165
Argentina	+4,9% +430	-68,1% -27	+22,5% +237	+6,2% +412	-245
Ukraine	-1,9% -182	+43,8% +37	-14,8% -63	-2,3% -179	+97
Chile	+9,2% +169	+5,9% +1	-1,4% -1	+3,1% +14	+156
TOTAL	*+1,1%* +3.128	*-5,4%* -201	*+2,9%* +1.498	*+0,9%* +2.294	-865
* Import, Export and Consumption data are in Milk Equivalent (ME), comprehensive of WMP, Cheese, SMP+Butter and Liquid Milk. Import and Export data are also comprehensive of Condensed Milk and Yogurt. Information Note SOURCE Production: EU-28: Eurostat, FEGA, DEFRA, AGEA, Zuivel; New Zealand: DCANZ; USA: National Agricultural Statistics Service; Australia: Dairy Australia; Belarus: National Statistical Committee of the Republic of Belarus; Uruguay: INALE; Argentina: Subsecretaría de Lechería - Ministerio de Agroindustria; Ukraine: State Statistics Committee of Ukraine; Chile: ODEPA. Import/Export: IHS Domestic Consumption: FAS-USDA
« Last year Current year »

Milk Equivalent ('000 Ton)	Δ Milk P.	Δ Imp*	Δ Exp*	Δ Cons*	Balance Δ(P+I-E-C)
Main Players, changes Jan-Dec 2017 on Jan-Dec 2016
EU-28	+1,9% +2.896	-18,4% -129	+14,2% +2.504	+1,5% +2.199	-1.936
New Zealand	+1,4% +286	-10,2% -16	-2,9% -535	+5,1% +81	+724
USA	+1,4% +1.388	-6,0% -117	+6,1% +559	+0,7% +614	+99
Australia	-0,2% -17	+24,0% +252	-2,7% -106	+5,5% +400	-58
Belarus	+2,5% +182	-59,3% -107	-2,9% -108	+6,7% +176	+6
Uruguay	+8,4% +154	-2,8% -1	-17,2% -261	0% 0	+414
Argentina	-1,9% -189	+56,9% +16	-27,8% -441	-6,1% -467	+736
Ukraine	-1,0% -107	+44,3% +30	-7,6% -37	-5,0% -438	+398
Chile	-0,0% -1	+70,9% +5	-1,6% -1	+3,2% +16	-11
TOTAL	*+1,5%* +4.593	*-1,6%* -67	*+2,8%* +1.573	*+1,0%* +2.580	+374
* Import, Export and Consumption data are in Milk Equivalent (ME), comprehensive of WMP, Cheese, SMP+Butter and Liquid Milk. Import and Export data are also comprehensive of Condensed Milk and Yogurt. Information Note SOURCE Production: EU-28: Eurostat, FEGA, DEFRA, AGEA, Zuivel; New Zealand: DCANZ; USA: National Agricultural Statistics Service; Australia: Dairy Australia; Belarus: National Statistical Committee of the Republic of Belarus; Uruguay: INALE; Argentina: Subsecretaría de Lechería - Ministerio de Agroindustria; Ukraine: State Statistics Committee of Ukraine; Chile: ODEPA. Import/Export: IHS Domestic Consumption: FAS-USDA
« Last year Current year »

SMP ('000 Tons)	Δ Prod	Δ Imp*	Δ Exp*	Δ Cons*	Balance Δ(P+I-E-C)
Main Players, changes Jan-Nov 2018 on Jan-Nov 2017
EU-28	+0,4% +6	+60,3% +1	+4,8% +35	+14,3% +105	-132
USA	-2,7% -26	+50,6% +0	+21,5% +118	-20,7% -81	-63
New Zealand	-14,1% -48	+61,3% +1	-11,4% -39	0% 0	-8
Australia	+9,8% +16	+62,2% +5	-1,3% -2	+1,2% +1	+22
TOTAL	*-1,9%* -53	*+61,0%* +7	*+6,3%* +111	*+2,1%* +25	-182
Information Note SOURCE Production: EU-28: Eurostat, data estimated by CLAL; New Zealand: The Data are calculated by applying the incidence of WMP export on Total Dairy export to the annual production data (Source: FAS-USDA). The same calculation is used also to the current year data, applying the incidence calculated for the previous year. USA: National Agricultural Statistics Service; Australia: Dairy Australia; Import/Export: IHS Domestic Consumption: Data calculated by applying the incidence of FAS-USDA consumption (compared to FAS-USDA productions) to the production data (retrieved from local sources).
« Last year Current year »

SMP ('000 Tons)	Δ Prod	Δ Imp*	Δ Exp*	Δ Cons*	Balance Δ(P+I-E-C)
Main Players, changes Jan-Dec 2017 on Jan-Dec 2016
EU-28	-2,1% -30	-33,3% -1	+34,7% +201	+20,8% +137	-369
USA	+2,3% +24	+106,6% +1	+2,3% +14	-4,9% -22	+33
New Zealand	-0,6% -3	-27,0% -1	-9,7% -43	0% 0	+40
Australia	-21,6% -51	+25,9% +2	-3,4% -6	+1,2% +1	-45
TOTAL	*-1,9%* -60	*+2,8%* +0	*+9,3%* +166	*+9,7%* +116	-342
Information Note SOURCE Production: EU-28: Eurostat, data estimated by CLAL; New Zealand: The Data are calculated by applying the incidence of WMP export on Total Dairy export to the annual production data (Source: FAS-USDA). The same calculation is used also to the current year data, applying the incidence calculated for the previous year. USA: National Agricultural Statistics Service; Australia: Dairy Australia; Import/Export: IHS Domestic Consumption: Data calculated by applying the incidence of FAS-USDA consumption (compared to FAS-USDA productions) to the production data (retrieved from local sources).
« Last year Current year »

WMP ('000 Tons)	Δ Prod	Δ Imp*	Δ Exp*	Δ Cons*	Balance Δ(P+I-E-C)
Main Players, changes Jan-Nov 2018 on Jan-Nov 2017
New Zealand	+3,7% +44	+8,0% +0	+0,8% +9	0% 0	+35
EU-28	-2,3% -17	-18,3% -0	-13,9% -51	+6,1% +22	+12
Australia	-15,3% -10	+6,2% +2	+5,5% +3	+9,4% +3	-14
USA	+24,8% +12	-62,3% -13	+88,4% +22	+32,0% +15	-37
TOTAL	*+1,4%* +29	*-23,6%* -12	*-1,1%* -17	*+8,6%* +39	-5
Information Note SOURCE Production: EU-28: Eurostat, BLE, data estimated by CLAL; New Zealand: The Data are calculated by applying the incidence of WMP export on Total Dairy export to the annual production data (Source: FAS-USDA). The same calculation is used also to the current year data, applying the incidence calculated for the previous year. USA: National Agricultural Statistics Service; Australia: Dairy Australia; Import/Export: IHS Domestic Consumption: Data calculated by applying the incidence of FAS-USDA consumption (compared to FAS-USDA productions) to the production data (retrieved from local sources).
« Last year Current year »

WMP ('000 Tons)	Δ Prod	Δ Imp*	Δ Exp*	Δ Cons*	Balance Δ(P+I-E-C)
Main Players, changes Jan-Dec 2017 on Jan-Dec 2016
New Zealand	+4,7% +62	-56,8% -2	-0,1% -2	+33,3% +6	+55
EU-28	+2,7% +21	-72,2% -4	+3,0% +11	+4,2% +16	-10
Australia	+38,3% +21	+71,3% +12	-22,1% -16	+6,7% +2	+46
USA	+24,7% +11	+32,8% +6	-13,4% -4	+25,0% +10	+11
TOTAL	*+5,2%* +116	*+25,0%* +11	*-0,5%* -10	*+7,3%* +34	+102
Information Note SOURCE Production: EU-28: Eurostat, BLE, data estimated by CLAL; New Zealand: The Data are calculated by applying the incidence of WMP export on Total Dairy export to the annual production data (Source: FAS-USDA). The same calculation is used also to the current year data, applying the incidence calculated for the previous year. USA: National Agricultural Statistics Service; Australia: Dairy Australia; Import/Export: IHS Domestic Consumption: Data calculated by applying the incidence of FAS-USDA consumption (compared to FAS-USDA productions) to the production data (retrieved from local sources).
« Last year Current year »

BUTTER ('000 Tons)	Δ Prod	Δ Imp*	Δ Exp*	Δ Cons*	Balance Δ(P+I-E-C)
Main Players, changes Jan-Nov 2018 on Jan-Nov 2017
New Zealand	+8,8% +41	-14,8% -0	+7,8% +30	+3,6% +1	+10
EU-28	+0,2% +4	+20,1% +3	-7,3% -12	+1,5% +28	-9
USA	+2,2% +16	+31,8% +12	+59,0% +18	+0,2% +2	+9
Australia	-6,9% -4	+21,6% +7	+2,7% +0	+6,1% +6	-4
TOTAL	*+1,8%* +58	*+25,7%* +22	*+6,3%* +37	*+1,3%* +37	+6
Information Note SOURCE Production: EU-28: Eurostat; New Zealand: The Data are calculated by applying the incidence of BUTTER export on Total Dairy export to the annual production data (Source: FAS-USDA). The same calculation is used also to the current year data, applying the incidence calculated for the previous year. USA: National Agricultural Statistics Service; Australia: Dairy Australia; Import/Export: IHS Domestic Consumption: Data calculated by applying the incidence of FAS-USDA consumption (compared to FAS-USDA productions) to the production data (retrieved from local sources).
« Last year Current year »

BUTTER ('000 Tons)	Δ Prod	Δ Imp*	Δ Exp*	Δ Cons*	Balance Δ(P+I-E-C)
Main Players, changes Jan-Dec 2017 on Jan-Dec 2016
New Zealand	-7,7% -44	-63,1% -1	-13,7% -69	0% 0	+24
EU-28	-0,1% -1	-28,3% -6	-17,2% -36	+0,9% +19	+10
USA	+0,4% +4	-6,9% -3	+18,2% +5	0% 0	-5
Australia	-22,0% -16	+17,8% +5	-48,4% -15	+12,7% +13	-9
TOTAL	*-1,6%* -57	*-5,5%* -5	*-14,9%* -115	*+1,1%* +32	+20
Information Note SOURCE Production: EU-28: Eurostat; New Zealand: The Data are calculated by applying the incidence of BUTTER export on Total Dairy export to the annual production data (Source: FAS-USDA). The same calculation is used also to the current year data, applying the incidence calculated for the previous year. USA: National Agricultural Statistics Service; Australia: Dairy Australia; Import/Export: IHS Domestic Consumption: Data calculated by applying the incidence of FAS-USDA consumption (compared to FAS-USDA productions) to the production data (retrieved from local sources).
« Last year Current year »

CHEESE ('000 Tons)	Δ Prod	Δ Imp*	Δ Exp*	Δ Cons*	Balance Δ(P+I-E-C)
Main Players, changes Jan-Nov 2018 on Jan-Nov 2017
EU-28	+0,4% +33	-0,2% -0	+0,8% +6	+1,0% +82	-55
USA	+2,5% +129	-4,3% -7	+1,7% +5	+2,3% +118	-2
New Zealand	-5,9% -19	+1,6% +0	-6,4% -19	+4,3% +2	-1
Australia	+5,4% +17	-14,8% -16	+0,9% +1	+1,7% +5	-5
TOTAL	*+1,1%* +160	*-6,8%* -23	*-0,5%* -7	*+1,5%* +206	-62
Information Note SOURCE Production: EU-28: Eurostat, CSO, data estimated by CLAL; New Zealand: The Data are calculated by applying the incidence of CHEESE export on Total Dairy export to the annual production data (Source: FAS-USDA). The same calculation is used also to the current year data, applying the incidence calculated for the previous year. USA: National Agricultural Statistics Service; Australia: Dairy Australia; Import/Export: IHS Domestic Consumption: Data calculated by applying the incidence of FAS-USDA consumption (compared to FAS-USDA productions) to the production data (retrieved from local sources).
« Last year Current year »

CHEESE ('000 Tons)	Δ Prod	Δ Imp*	Δ Exp*	Δ Cons*	Balance Δ(P+I-E-C)
Main Players, changes Jan-Dec 2017 on Jan-Dec 2016
EU-28	+2,8% +256	-15,6% -11	+3,7% +29	+2,5% +211	+5
USA	+3,9% +217	-10,4% -21	+18,6% +54	+2,3% +122	+20
New Zealand	+4,6% +16	+9,2% +1	-3,5% -12	+9,5% +4	+25
Australia	+6,6% +22	+17,4% +17	+2,5% +4	+5,8% +16	+19
TOTAL	*+3,3%* +511	*-3,7%* -14	*+4,7%* +75	*+2,5%* +353	+69
Information Note SOURCE Production: EU-28: Eurostat, CSO, data estimated by CLAL; New Zealand: The Data are calculated by applying the incidence of CHEESE export on Total Dairy export to the annual production data (Source: FAS-USDA). The same calculation is used also to the current year data, applying the incidence calculated for the previous year. USA: National Agricultural Statistics Service; Australia: Dairy Australia; Import/Export: IHS Domestic Consumption: Data calculated by applying the incidence of FAS-USDA consumption (compared to FAS-USDA productions) to the production data (retrieved from local sources).
« Last year Current year »


/Ton	US (2019-02-15)		OCEANIA (2019-02-15)		EU¹ (2019-02-20)		GDT² (2019-02-19)
Product	Value	% Chg*	Value	% Chg*	Value	% Chg*	Value	% Chg*
CHEESE	3.483	+3,4%	3.550	+1,4%	3.635	-0,9%	3.686	+4,7%
BUTTER	4.960	-2,0%	4.475	+5,0%	4.856	-1,7%	4.525	+1,3%
SMP	2.161	-1,5%	2.600	+4,0%	2.231	+1,3%	2.564	+1,7%
WMP	3.527	0,0%	3.038	+8,5%	3.303	+0,4%	2.992	-0,8%
WHEY POWDER	970	-3,6%			1.062	+1,6%
MILK (US$/100Kg)	37,48	-2,3%	33,47	+0,8%	40,24	-0,6%
Change from previous price ¹ Prices refer to Germany. Cheese and Milk European prices refer to Milk Market Observatory. ² Contract 2 GDT n.a.*: not available

Show/Hide Global Snapshot in €

/Ton	US (2019-02-15)		OCEANIA (2000-01-01)		EU¹ (2019-02-20)		GDT² (2019-02-19)
Product	Value	% Chg*	Value	% Chg*	Value	% Chg*	Value	% Chg*
CHEESE	3.091	+4,1%			3.204	+0,2%	3.254	+5,6%
BUTTER	4.402	-1,3%			4.300	-1,7%	3.995	+2,2%
SMP	1.917	-0,8%			1.975	+1,3%	2.263	+2,5%
WMP	3.130	+0,7%			2.925	+0,4%	2.641	+0,1%
WHEY POWDER	861	-2,9%			940	+1,6%
MILK (€/100Kg)	32,97	-1,3%			35,25	-0,9%
Change from previous price ¹ Prices refer to Germany. Cheese and Milk European prices refer to Milk Market Observatory. ² Contract 2 GDT n.a.*: not available

FOCUS Price Products € in real time

	Area	Last updated	± from prev. price	± from 1 year ago
Price / Quotation
Whole Milk…
▸ “SPOT”	Italy	18 Feb 2019	-0,5%	+44,6%
▸ farm-gate	EU-27	31 Jan 2019	+1,5%	-3,1%
PDO cheeses…
▸ hard	Italy	18 Feb 2019	+0,1%	+13,2%
▸ semi-hard	Italy	18 Feb 2019	0,0%	+5,8%
▸ fresh	Italy	18 Feb 2019	0,0%	+5,6%
Cheeses	Germany and Oceania	20 Feb 2019	+4,9%	+3,4%
Butter	Italy, Germany and Oceania	20 Feb 2019	+1,1%	-7,3%
SMP (Skimmed Milk Powder)	Germany, Oceania and USA	20 Feb 2019	+2,2%	+40,7%
Whey powder	Germany and USA	20 Feb 2019	-1,5%	+57,8%
Corn	Italy and USA	12 Feb 2019	-0,5%	+5,1%
Soybeans	Italy and USA	12 Feb 2019	-1,6%	-7,7%
Oil	Europe	8 Feb 2019	+0,5%	-5,8%
Retail price
PDO hard cheeses	Italy	Dec 2018	-3,9%	-1,6%
Fresh cheeses	Italy	Dec 2018	+1,2%	-0,2%
Butter	Italy	Dec 2018	-2,3%	-1,7%

Percentage price changes relate to (i) the last quotation period, and to (ii) the same period of the previous year

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World Supply and Demand

Global Milk Supply in the Key Exporters of Dairy Products: +5,9% (Jan'18 - Jan'19)

Dairy Products Production in some Key Exporting Countries

Milk Powders (WMP and SMP), Butter and Cheese Exports of the main Exporting countries +7,85% (Oct'18 - Nov'18)

Butter Stocks
· EU-28 31 Jan 2019: 0 tons (no variation compared to 31 Dec 2018; no variation compared to Jan 2018)
· USA 30 Nov 2018: 69.731 tons (-33,4% compared to 31 Oct 2018; -3,5% compared to Nov 2017)

SMP Stocks
· EU-28 31 Jan 2019: 5.000 tons (-97,2% compared to 31 Dec 2018; -98,7% compared to Jan 2018)
· USA 30 Nov 2018: 130.237 tons (+13,9% compared to 31 Oct 2018; -9,4% compared to Nov 2017)

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CLAL is an Italian Dairy Economic Consulting firm that analyses the Dairy Market, describes trends and provides data, news and synthesis thanks to information and training activities.

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Dairy Market Alert

Clal.it outlines hereafter some important changes that occured in the market and may have an impact on the market trend Cheese, Butter, Powder and Packed Milk import and export flows of the main dairy players.

▸ EU-28 Milk in packings of <= 2 L Export: -11,4% (Dec '18) **
▸ EU-28 SMP Export: +34,9% (Dec '18) **
▸ EU-28 Milk in packings of > 2 L Export: -9,0% (Dec '18) **
▸ Italy Cream Export: +43,2% (Nov '18) **

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▸ EU-28 WMP Export: -33,4% (Dec '18) **

Access the Dairy World Trade section » to analyse more in depth

** Compared to the same month of the previous year (Information Note)

Import or Export changes become “Alerts” if the given thresholds are exceeded: Cream ± 20 %, Milk in packings of > 2 l ± 20 %, Milk in packings of <= 2 l ± 20 %, Baby milk ± 15 %, Butter ± 15 %, Cheese ± 15 %, SMP ± 20 %, WMP ± 20 %, Whey powder ± 40 %

Clal Updates and Publications

CLAL.it provides the Operators with a range of updated information.

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EU-28 consolidates its leadership in Cheese and SMP exports
With an acceleration of 3.5% in quantity and 2% in value in December, the dairy export of the European Union recovered in 2018, which marks ... read
Dairy prices moved higher [News Oceania n°4/2019]
Period: February 4 – 15, 2019 In Australia, the extreme temperatures noted two weeks ago are less intense. Victoria and Tasmania have ... read
El Niño dampened milk production in Argentina [News South America n° 2/2019]
Period: January 7 – February 1, 2019 El Niño dampened milk production in Argentina. Floods have harshly impacted dairy farmers: ... read

GlobalDairyTrade results of February 19, 2019

Change in Price Index from Previous Event: +0,9 %
Average Winning Price: 3.271 US$ / Ton

	Average price USD / Ton	Change
AMF (Anhydrous Milk Fat)	5.620	+0,7 %
BMP (Butter Milk Powder)	n.a.	-
BUTTER 82%	4.495	+1,2 %
RENNET CASEIN	5.740	+2,7 %
CHEDDAR	3.667	+2,9 %
LACTOSE	998	-2,9 %
MPC (Milk Protein Concentrate)	n.a.	-
SMP (Skim. milk Powder)	2.580	+2,8 %
SWP (Sweet Whey Powder)	n.a.	-
WMP (Whole milk Powder)	3.022	+0,3 %

Next GlobalDairyTrade Event: March 05, 2019

ITALY: Import/Export as of November 30, 2018

Exports of G.Padano + P.Reggiano:	+5,60 %
Exports of Gorgonzola:	+2,85 %
Exports of Grated cheese:	+5,89 %

Imports of Full-fat bulk milk:	-4,66 %
Imports of Packed semi-skimmed milk:	-5,82 %

Next Update: March 12, 2019

December 2018: Quarterly Macroeconomic Outlook
Macroeconomic Outlook edited by the Research Department of Intesa Sanpaolo Group, Italy

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Performance and Competitiveness of Italian Dairy Farms

CLAL focus on: Valcolatte

Name:: Mozzarella Bocconcino Valcolatte

Company:: Valcolatte
Base:: Pontenure (PC), Italy
Personnel:: 100 persons
Establishment year:: 1988

Products:: ricotta, mozzarella, provolone, PDO cheeses, stracchino, butter, mascarpone

Mozzarella Valcolatte Bocconcino with milk enzymes is available in packs of 100 g or 125 g.

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Agricultural Market Feed

I - Milan, Italian Corn price	In calo	-0,53%
I - Milan, Pressed forst corp hay price	In calo	-1,29%
I - Milan, Dehydrated lucerne price	In calo	-1,06%
I- Milan, Italian Soybeans flour price	In calo	-0,58%
I- Milan, Foreign soybeans price	In calo	-2,26%
I - Milan, Bran price	In calo	-5,71%
I - Milan EU barley price	In calo	-1,66%
I - Milan, Italian soybeans price	In calo	-0,86%
US - Soybeans Price	In calo	-2,45%
US - Wheat Price	In aumento	+0,19%
US - Maize price	In aumento	+0,59%

Information Note

Market News evidences only the changes; should no price change or no quotation take place, any mention will be made.
The change/variation concerning PRODUCTION/OUTPUT quantity refers to the same period of the previous year.
The change/variation concerning STOCK quantity refers to the previous month.
The change/variation of price refers to PRICES expressed in local currency (for both EU and the World). The change refers to the previous week/month/year, as the case may be. In the case of dual-listed (min and max), changes are calculated using the MAX PRICE.

Feed Cost

Weight of the Protein Component	44%
Simulated Feed Ration (vs prev month)	-1.39%
Milk:Feed Ratio	1.69

Prices of Fertilizers

I - Modena, Triple superphosphate granular 46%	Stabile	444	€/ton	0.00%
I - Modena, Ammonium nitrate prilled 26%	Stabile	297	€/ton	0.00%
I - Modena, Urea prilled 46%	Stabile	438	€/ton	0.00%