CLAL - Advisory in Dairy and Food Product

Global Snapshot

MILK EQUIVALENT | SMP | WMP | BUTTER | CHEESE

Milk Equivalent ('000 Ton)	Δ Milk P.	Δ Imp*	Δ Exp*	Δ Cons*	Balance Δ(P+I-E-C)
Main Players, changes Jan 2019 on Jan 2018
New Zealand	+7,7% +177	+26,2% +3	+8,6% +164	+1,0% +1	+14
EU-28	-1,3% -172	+20,3% +9	+24,6% +372	+0,4% +49	-584
USA	+0,9% +71	-1,6% -2	+1,3% +10	+1,7% +128	-69
Australia	-11,0% -90	-7,2% -9	+26,8% +72	+2,9% +19	-190
Belarus	-0,4% -3	-12,6% -1	+18,0% +49	+2,0% +5	-57
Uruguay	-6,6% -11	-1,9% -0	+42,4% +38	0% 0	-49
Argentina	-7,3% -63	-29,2% -1	+2,7% +3	+2,6% +17	-84
Ukraine	-1,9% -11	+27,8% +2	-0,8% -0	+0,1% +1	-9
Chile	+3,1% +7	+46,4% +0	+20,9% +1	+3,0% +1	+5
TOTAL	*-0,3%* -94	*+0,5%* +2	*+14,2%* +709	*+1,0%* +221	-1.022
* Import, Export and Consumption data are in Milk Equivalent (ME), comprehensive of WMP, Cheese, SMP+Butter and Liquid Milk. Import and Export data are also comprehensive of Condensed Milk and Yogurt. Information Note SOURCE Production: EU-28: Eurostat, FEGA, DEFRA, AGEA, Zuivel; New Zealand: DCANZ; USA: National Agricultural Statistics Service; Australia: Dairy Australia; Belarus: National Statistical Committee of the Republic of Belarus; Uruguay: INALE; Argentina: Subsecretaría de Lechería - Ministerio de Agroindustria; Ukraine: State Statistics Committee of Ukraine; Chile: ODEPA. Import/Export: IHS Domestic Consumption: FAS-USDA
« Last year Current year »

Milk Equivalent ('000 Ton)	Δ Milk P.	Δ Imp*	Δ Exp*	Δ Cons*	Balance Δ(P+I-E-C)
Main Players, changes Jan-Dec 2018 on Jan-Dec 2017
New Zealand	+2,3% +487	+6,9% +10	-2,2% -399	+2,5% +41	+855
EU-28	+0,9% +1.365	+0,1% +1	-0,5% -109	+0,9% +1.342	+133
USA	+1,0% +929	-8,8% -162	+14,3% +1.400	+0,9% +763	-1.397
Australia	-1,8% -174	-7,2% -93	-0,2% -8	+2,4% +180	-440
Belarus	+0,3% +24	-5,4% -4	+5,5% +199	-3,3% -93	-85
Uruguay	+3,9% +77	-2,0% -1	+23,0% +289	0% 0	-213
Argentina	+4,3% +412	-6,1% -3	+26,6% +306	+6,2% +449	-346
Ukraine	-1,8% -183	+41,6% +40	-15,9% -71	-2,3% -195	+123
Chile	+9,2% +190	+1,2% +0	-0,3% -0	+3,1% +16	+174
TOTAL	*+1,0%* +3.126	*-5,2%* -212	*+2,8%* +1.606	*+0,9%* +2.502	-1.195
* Import, Export and Consumption data are in Milk Equivalent (ME), comprehensive of WMP, Cheese, SMP+Butter and Liquid Milk. Import and Export data are also comprehensive of Condensed Milk and Yogurt. Information Note SOURCE Production: EU-28: Eurostat, FEGA, DEFRA, AGEA, Zuivel; New Zealand: DCANZ; USA: National Agricultural Statistics Service; Australia: Dairy Australia; Belarus: National Statistical Committee of the Republic of Belarus; Uruguay: INALE; Argentina: Subsecretaría de Lechería - Ministerio de Agroindustria; Ukraine: State Statistics Committee of Ukraine; Chile: ODEPA. Import/Export: IHS Domestic Consumption: FAS-USDA
« Last year Current year »

SMP ('000 Tons)	Δ Prod	Δ Imp*	Δ Exp*	Δ Cons*	Balance Δ(P+I-E-C)
Main Players, changes Jan-Nov 2018 on Jan-Nov 2017
EU-28	+0,0% +0	+60,3% +1	+2,9% +21	+14,3% +105	-124
USA	-2,7% -26	+50,6% +0	+21,5% +118	-20,7% -81	-63
New Zealand	-14,1% -48	+61,3% +1	-11,4% -39	0% 0	-8
Australia	+9,8% +16	+62,2% +5	-1,3% -2	+1,2% +1	+22
TOTAL	*-2,1%* -58	*+61,0%* +7	*+5,6%* +98	*+2,1%* +25	-173
Information Note SOURCE Production: EU-28: Eurostat, data estimated by CLAL; New Zealand: The Data are calculated by applying the incidence of WMP export on Total Dairy export to the annual production data (Source: FAS-USDA). The same calculation is used also to the current year data, applying the incidence calculated for the previous year. USA: National Agricultural Statistics Service; Australia: Dairy Australia; Import/Export: IHS Domestic Consumption: Data calculated by applying the incidence of FAS-USDA consumption (compared to FAS-USDA productions) to the production data (retrieved from local sources).
« Last year Current year »

SMP ('000 Tons)	Δ Prod	Δ Imp*	Δ Exp*	Δ Cons*	Balance Δ(P+I-E-C)
Main Players, changes Jan-Dec 2017 on Jan-Dec 2016
EU-28	-2,1% -30	-33,3% -1	+34,7% +201	+20,8% +137	-370
USA	+2,3% +24	+106,6% +1	+2,3% +14	-4,9% -22	+33
New Zealand	-0,6% -3	-27,0% -1	-9,7% -43	0% 0	+40
Australia	-21,6% -51	+25,9% +2	-3,4% -6	+1,2% +1	-45
TOTAL	*-1,9%* -60	*+2,8%* +0	*+9,3%* +166	*+9,7%* +116	-342
Information Note SOURCE Production: EU-28: Eurostat, data estimated by CLAL; New Zealand: The Data are calculated by applying the incidence of WMP export on Total Dairy export to the annual production data (Source: FAS-USDA). The same calculation is used also to the current year data, applying the incidence calculated for the previous year. USA: National Agricultural Statistics Service; Australia: Dairy Australia; Import/Export: IHS Domestic Consumption: Data calculated by applying the incidence of FAS-USDA consumption (compared to FAS-USDA productions) to the production data (retrieved from local sources).
« Last year Current year »

WMP ('000 Tons)	Δ Prod	Δ Imp*	Δ Exp*	Δ Cons*	Balance Δ(P+I-E-C)
Main Players, changes Jan-Nov 2018 on Jan-Nov 2017
New Zealand	+3,7% +44	+8,0% +0	+0,8% +9	0% 0	+35
EU-28	-2,6% -19	-18,3% -0	-13,9% -51	+6,1% +22	+9
Australia	-15,3% -10	+6,2% +2	+5,5% +3	+9,4% +3	-14
USA	+24,8% +12	-62,3% -13	+88,4% +22	+32,0% +15	-37
TOTAL	*+1,3%* +27	*-23,6%* -12	*-1,1%* -18	*+8,6%* +39	-7
Information Note SOURCE Production: EU-28: Eurostat, BLE, data estimated by CLAL; New Zealand: The Data are calculated by applying the incidence of WMP export on Total Dairy export to the annual production data (Source: FAS-USDA). The same calculation is used also to the current year data, applying the incidence calculated for the previous year. USA: National Agricultural Statistics Service; Australia: Dairy Australia; Import/Export: IHS Domestic Consumption: Data calculated by applying the incidence of FAS-USDA consumption (compared to FAS-USDA productions) to the production data (retrieved from local sources).
« Last year Current year »

WMP ('000 Tons)	Δ Prod	Δ Imp*	Δ Exp*	Δ Cons*	Balance Δ(P+I-E-C)
Main Players, changes Jan-Dec 2017 on Jan-Dec 2016
New Zealand	+4,7% +62	-56,8% -2	-0,1% -2	+33,3% +6	+55
EU-28	+2,7% +21	-72,2% -4	+3,0% +11	+4,2% +16	-10
Australia	+38,3% +21	+71,3% +12	-22,1% -16	+6,7% +2	+46
USA	+24,7% +11	+32,8% +6	-13,4% -4	+25,0% +10	+11
TOTAL	*+5,2%* +116	*+25,0%* +11	*-0,5%* -10	*+7,3%* +34	+102
Information Note SOURCE Production: EU-28: Eurostat, BLE, data estimated by CLAL; New Zealand: The Data are calculated by applying the incidence of WMP export on Total Dairy export to the annual production data (Source: FAS-USDA). The same calculation is used also to the current year data, applying the incidence calculated for the previous year. USA: National Agricultural Statistics Service; Australia: Dairy Australia; Import/Export: IHS Domestic Consumption: Data calculated by applying the incidence of FAS-USDA consumption (compared to FAS-USDA productions) to the production data (retrieved from local sources).
« Last year Current year »

BUTTER ('000 Tons)	Δ Prod	Δ Imp*	Δ Exp*	Δ Cons*	Balance Δ(P+I-E-C)
Main Players, changes Jan-Nov 2018 on Jan-Nov 2017
New Zealand	+8,8% +41	-14,8% -0	+7,8% +30	+3,6% +1	+10
EU-28	+0,4% +7	+20,5% +3	-7,3% -12	+1,5% +28	-6
USA	+2,2% +17	+31,8% +12	+59,0% +18	+0,2% +2	+9
Australia	-6,9% -4	+21,6% +7	+2,7% +0	+6,1% +6	-4
TOTAL	*+1,9%* +61	*+25,8%* +22	*+6,3%* +37	*+1,3%* +37	+9
Information Note SOURCE Production: EU-28: Eurostat; New Zealand: The Data are calculated by applying the incidence of BUTTER export on Total Dairy export to the annual production data (Source: FAS-USDA). The same calculation is used also to the current year data, applying the incidence calculated for the previous year. USA: National Agricultural Statistics Service; Australia: Dairy Australia; Import/Export: IHS Domestic Consumption: Data calculated by applying the incidence of FAS-USDA consumption (compared to FAS-USDA productions) to the production data (retrieved from local sources).
« Last year Current year »

BUTTER ('000 Tons)	Δ Prod	Δ Imp*	Δ Exp*	Δ Cons*	Balance Δ(P+I-E-C)
Main Players, changes Jan-Dec 2017 on Jan-Dec 2016
New Zealand	-7,7% -44	-63,1% -1	-13,7% -69	0% 0	+24
EU-28	-0,1% -1	-28,3% -6	-17,2% -36	+0,9% +19	+10
USA	+0,4% +4	-6,9% -3	+18,2% +5	0% 0	-5
Australia	-22,0% -16	+17,8% +5	-48,4% -15	+12,7% +13	-9
TOTAL	*-1,6%* -57	*-5,5%* -5	*-14,9%* -115	*+1,1%* +32	+20
Information Note SOURCE Production: EU-28: Eurostat; New Zealand: The Data are calculated by applying the incidence of BUTTER export on Total Dairy export to the annual production data (Source: FAS-USDA). The same calculation is used also to the current year data, applying the incidence calculated for the previous year. USA: National Agricultural Statistics Service; Australia: Dairy Australia; Import/Export: IHS Domestic Consumption: Data calculated by applying the incidence of FAS-USDA consumption (compared to FAS-USDA productions) to the production data (retrieved from local sources).
« Last year Current year »

CHEESE ('000 Tons)	Δ Prod	Δ Imp*	Δ Exp*	Δ Cons*	Balance Δ(P+I-E-C)
Main Players, changes Jan-Nov 2018 on Jan-Nov 2017
EU-28	+0,4% +36	+0,1% +0	+0,7% +6	+1,0% +82	-51
USA	+2,5% +129	-4,3% -7	+1,7% +5	+2,3% +118	-2
New Zealand	-5,9% -19	+1,6% +0	-6,4% -19	+4,3% +2	-1
Australia	+5,4% +17	-14,8% -16	+0,9% +1	+1,7% +5	-5
TOTAL	*+1,1%* +163	*-6,7%* -23	*-0,5%* -7	*+1,5%* +206	-59
Information Note SOURCE Production: EU-28: Eurostat, CSO, data estimated by CLAL; New Zealand: The Data are calculated by applying the incidence of CHEESE export on Total Dairy export to the annual production data (Source: FAS-USDA). The same calculation is used also to the current year data, applying the incidence calculated for the previous year. USA: National Agricultural Statistics Service; Australia: Dairy Australia; Import/Export: IHS Domestic Consumption: Data calculated by applying the incidence of FAS-USDA consumption (compared to FAS-USDA productions) to the production data (retrieved from local sources).
« Last year Current year »

CHEESE ('000 Tons)	Δ Prod	Δ Imp*	Δ Exp*	Δ Cons*	Balance Δ(P+I-E-C)
Main Players, changes Jan-Dec 2017 on Jan-Dec 2016
EU-28	+2,8% +256	-15,6% -11	+3,7% +29	+2,5% +211	+5
USA	+3,9% +217	-10,4% -21	+18,6% +54	+2,3% +122	+20
New Zealand	+4,6% +16	+9,2% +1	-3,5% -12	+9,5% +4	+25
Australia	+6,6% +22	+17,4% +17	+2,5% +4	+5,8% +16	+19
TOTAL	*+3,3%* +511	*-3,7%* -14	*+4,7%* +75	*+2,5%* +353	+69
Information Note SOURCE Production: EU-28: Eurostat, CSO, data estimated by CLAL; New Zealand: The Data are calculated by applying the incidence of CHEESE export on Total Dairy export to the annual production data (Source: FAS-USDA). The same calculation is used also to the current year data, applying the incidence calculated for the previous year. USA: National Agricultural Statistics Service; Australia: Dairy Australia; Import/Export: IHS Domestic Consumption: Data calculated by applying the incidence of FAS-USDA consumption (compared to FAS-USDA productions) to the production data (retrieved from local sources).
« Last year Current year »


/Ton	US (2019-04-12)		OCEANIA (2019-04-12)		EU¹ (2019-04-17)		GDT² (2019-04-16)
Product	Value	% Chg*	Value	% Chg*	Value	% Chg*	Value	% Chg*
CHEESE	3.627	-0,9%	4.225	+3,4%	3.716	-0,3%	4.185	-2,6%
BUTTER	4.977	-0,6%	5.488	+5,5%	4.720	+0,2%	5.795	+5,8%
SMP	2.138	0,0%	2.563	+3,5%	2.182	+0,8%	2.438	+0,1%
WMP	3.583	0,0%	3.325	-0,4%	3.284	+0,8%	3.282	+0,4%
WHEY POWDER	876	0,0%			1.057	+1,3%
MILK (US$/100Kg)	37,04	+1,2%	34,24	+2,3%	39,40	-0,7%
Change from previous price ¹ Prices refer to Germany. Cheese and Milk European prices refer to Milk Market Observatory. ² Contract 2 GDT n.a.*: not available

Show/Hide Global Snapshot in €

/Ton	US (2019-04-12)		OCEANIA (1555020000)		EU¹ (2019-04-17)		GDT² (2019-04-16)
Product	Value	% Chg*	Value	% Chg*	Value	% Chg*	Value	% Chg*
CHEESE	3.220	-1,3%	3.751	+2,9%	3.308	+0,3%	3.699	-3,2%
BUTTER	4.418	-0,9%	4.872	+5,1%	4.175	0,0%	5.122	+5,0%
SMP	1.899	-0,4%	2.275	+3,1%	1.930	+0,5%	2.155	-0,6%
WMP	3.181	-0,4%	2.952	-0,8%	2.905	+0,5%	2.901	-0,3%
WHEY POWDER	778	-0,4%			935	+1,1%
MILK (€/100Kg)	32,63	+1,8%	29,99	+2,0%	34,85	-0,3%
Change from previous price ¹ Prices refer to Germany. Cheese and Milk European prices refer to Milk Market Observatory. ² Contract 2 GDT n.a.*: not available

FOCUS Price Products € in real time

	Area	Last updated	± from prev. price	± from 1 year ago
Price / Quotation
Whole Milk…
▸ “SPOT”	Italy	15 Apr 2019	-1,3%	+15,9%
▸ farm-gate	EU-27	31 Mar 2019	+0,2%	+2,5%
▸ farm-gate	USA	28 Feb 2019	+1,8%	+19,4%
PDO cheeses…
▸ hard	Italy	18 Apr 2019	0,0%	+13,3%
▸ semi-hard	Italy	15 Apr 2019	0,0%	+6,7%
▸ fresh	Italy	15 Apr 2019	0,0%	+6,6%
Cheeses	Germany and Oceania	17 Apr 2019	+6,5%	+15,0%
Butter	Italy, Germany and Oceania	17 Apr 2019	+1,9%	-14,4%
SMP (Skimmed Milk Powder)	Germany, Oceania and USA	17 Apr 2019	+1,2%	+46,3%
Whey powder	Germany and USA	17 Apr 2019	-0,2%	+46,2%
Corn	Italy and USA	17 Apr 2019	+0,7%	+4,1%
Soybeans	Italy and USA	17 Apr 2019	-0,2%	-10,1%
Oil	Europe	12 Apr 2019	+2,6%	+0,1%
Retail price
PDO hard cheeses	Italy	Feb 2019	+0,5%	+6,4%
Fresh cheeses	Italy	Feb 2019	-0,7%	-0,5%
Butter	Italy	Feb 2019	-0,9%	+0,1%

Percentage price changes relate to (i) the last quotation period, and to (ii) the same period of the previous year

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World Supply and Demand

Global Milk Supply in the Key Exporters of Dairy Products: -0,7% (Jan'19 - Mar'19)

Dairy Products Production in some Key Exporting Countries

Milk Powders (WMP and SMP), Butter and Cheese Exports of the main Exporting countries +11,83% (Jan'19 - Feb'19)

Butter Stocks
· EU-28 31 Mar 2019: 0 tons (no variation compared to 28 Feb 2019; no variation compared to Mar 2018)
· USA 28 Feb 2019: 110.003 tons (+14,8% compared to 31 Jan 2019; -8,7% compared to Feb 2018)

SMP Stocks
· EU-28 31 Mar 2019: 2.743 tons (-36,7% compared to 28 Feb 2019; -99,3% compared to Mar 2018)
· USA 28 Feb 2019: 140.132 tons (+7,9% compared to 31 Jan 2019; +3,5% compared to Feb 2018)

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Dairy Market Alert

Clal.it outlines hereafter some important changes that occured in the market and may have an impact on the market trend:

export share of production of Grana Padana, Parmigiano Reggiano and Gorgonzola cheeses,
Cheese, Butter, Powder and Packed Milk import and export flows of the main dairy players.

Export share of production:
▸ Grana Padano + Parmigiano Reggiano +3,4 % points (Jan '19) *
▸ Gorgonzola +2,4 % points (Jan '19) *

▸ Russia Cream Import: -33,9% (Feb '19) **
▸ Malaysia SMP Import: +52,0% (Jan '19) **
▸ Germany Cream Export: -22,1% (Feb '19) **
▸ Russia Butter Import: +123,1% (Feb '19) **

Show/Hide all ALERT

▸ France SMP Export: +29,2% (Feb '19) **
▸ EU-28 Milk in packings of > 2 L Export: -37,5% (Feb '19) **
▸ United States Cheese Export: +17,0% (Feb '19) **
▸ United States Butter Import: +72,6% (Feb '19) **
▸ Malaysia Cream Import: +92,2% (Jan '19) **
▸ United States Cream Import: -70,7% (Feb '19) **
▸ EU-28 WMP Export: -33,5% (Feb '19) **
▸ EU-28 SMP Export: +23,8% (Feb '19) **
▸ EU-28 Butter Export: -21,8% (Feb '19) **
▸ United States Butter Export: +35,8% (Feb '19) **
▸ EU-28 Milk in packings of <= 2 L Export: +30,3% (Feb '19) **

Access the Dairy World Trade section » to analyse more in depth

* Compared to the same period of the previous year

** Compared to the same month of the previous year (Information Note)

Import or Export changes become “Alerts” if the given thresholds are exceeded: Cream ± 20 %, Milk in packings of > 2 l ± 20 %, Milk in packings of <= 2 l ± 20 %, Baby milk ± 15 %, Butter ± 15 %, Cheese ± 15 %, SMP ± 20 %, WMP ± 20 %, Whey powder ± 40 %

Clal Updates and Publications

CLAL.it provides the Operators with a range of updated information.

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Brazilian dairy farmers are waiting to see lower feed prices soon [News South America n°7/2019]
Period: April 1 – 12, 2019 Milk production in Argentina and Uruguay remain below last year levels. As a consequence, cheese and milk ... read
Ukraine boosts Corn exports
Global Corn production for the 2018-19 season is estimated at 1107.4 Mio Tons, higher than the previous forecasts and +2.9% from last ... read
Strong Butter, SMP and Cheese demand [News Oceania n°8/2019]
Period: April 1 – 12, 2019 Australia-6.5% milk production Jun 18 – Feb 19 yoyFebruary 2019 Australia milk production is 12.6% ... read

ITALY: Import/Export as of January 31, 2019

Exports of G.Padano + P.Reggiano:	+8,18 %
Exports of Gorgonzola:	+16,81 %
Exports of Grated cheese:	+16,17 %

Imports of Full-fat bulk milk:	+6,79 %
Imports of Packed semi-skimmed milk:	-13,07 %

Next Update: May 16, 2019

GlobalDairyTrade results of April 16, 2019

Change in Price Index from Previous Event: +0,5 %
Average Winning Price: 3.447 US$ / Ton

	Average price USD / Ton	Change
AMF (Anhydrous Milk Fat)	6.126	+4,2 %
BMP (Butter Milk Powder)	n.a.	-
BUTTER 82%	5.544	+3,5 %
RENNET CASEIN	6.460	-2,4 %
CHEDDAR	4.319	+1,4 %
LACTOSE	912	-3,4 %
MPC (Milk Protein Concentrate)	n.a.	-
SMP (Skim. milk Powder)	2.462	+0,2 %
SWP (Sweet Whey Powder)	n.a.	-
WMP (Whole milk Powder)	3.269	-0,7 %

Next GlobalDairyTrade Event: May 07, 2019

March 2019: Quarterly Macroeconomic Outlook
Macroeconomic Outlook edited by the Research Department of Intesa Sanpaolo Group, Italy

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Performance and Competitiveness of Italian Dairy Farms

CLAL focus on: Asiago PDO Product of the Mountain

Name:: Asiago PDO Product of the Mountain

Consortium:: Consorzio Tutela Formaggio Asiago
Base:: Vicenza, Italy
Establishment year:: 1979

Products:: Fresh Asiago, Mature Asiago, Asiago Product of the Mountain

It is the traditional cheese of the Asiago Plateau. Asiago Cheese, which boasts the name "Product of the Mountain", is produced and aged only by cheese-makers located in mountain territory lying at an altitude of over 600 metres, according to strict production guidelines that highlight the repetition of an ancient tradition that protects the environment, grazing livestock and the consumer.

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I - Milan, Bran price	In aumento	+8,39%
I - Milan, Pressed forst corp hay price	In calo	-3,57%
US - Soybeans Price	In calo	-1,27%
US - Maize price	In aumento	+1,12%
US - Wheat Price	In aumento	+0,95%

Weight of the Protein Component	44%
Simulated Feed Ration (vs prev month)	+0.22%
Milk:Feed Ratio	1.72

I - Modena, Triple superphosphate granular 46%	Stabile	444	€/ton	0.00%
I - Modena, Ammonium nitrate prilled 26%	Stabile	297	€/ton	0.00%
I - Modena, Urea prilled 46%	Stabile	438	€/ton	0.00%

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